วิเคราะห์แนวโน้มธุรกิจประกันวินาศภัย ปี 2568: โอกาสเติบโตอย่างระมัดระวัง

The non-life insurance business in Thailand is facing significant changes, both in terms of consumer behavior, the recovering economy, and challenges related to claims payout rates. Recent reports from Q3 2024 and forecasts for 2025 indicate that the industry still has a growth trend, albeit at a cautious level.

📊 Non-Life Insurance Performance 2024 (Jan–Sep)

According to data from the OIC (Office of Insurance Commission), total direct premiums received across all types stood at 209,060 million baht, a slight decrease of -0.5% from the same period last year, with interesting details such as:

🔻 Categories with Decreased Performance:

Motor Insurance: Decreased by -1.3%, amounting to 116,909 million baht.
Marine Insurance: Decreased by -1.3%
IARs (Industrial All Risks): Decreased by -2.3%
PA (Personal Accident) and Health: Decreased slightly

🔺 Categories with Increased Performance:

Fire Insurance: Increased by +7.3%
Travel Insurance (TA): Increased by +11.2%
Health and Other Categories continue to grow steadily.

📉 Loss Ratio 2024

The total loss ratio stood at 56.9%, indicating a still-high claims payout cost burden, especially in some categories worth noting:

Types of Insurance	Loss Ratio
Health	65.5% (Highest)
Motor	61.7%
PA	48.8%
Miscellaneous	50.9%
Fire	23.7% (Lowest)

These figures reflect that even though there's income from premiums, the burden of claims payouts remains high in certain categories, especially "Health" which continues to be a challenge in risk management.

📈 Trends for 2025: Growth within Limits

According to forecasts by the Thai General Insurance Association, direct premiums received in 2025 are expected to be at:

👉 291,240 – 294,100 million baht
📈 Growth of approximately 1.5% – 2.5%

Compared to the previous year (2024e), which was in the range of 285,790 – 288,650 million baht with growth of only 0% – 1%, it is clear that the expansion remains within a narrow scope.

🔍 Factors Affecting Growth

Economy beginning to recover: GDP is expected to grow 2.3% – 3.3%
Insurance Density (premiums per capita income) is expected to be at 1.53% – 1.55%
Premium per Capita is at 4,118 – 4,199 baht

Even as the economy moves forward, the risks from high costs and intense competition in certain segments might necessitate "targeted growth," focusing on specific groups like health insurance for the elderly or cyber insurance.

Summary

Even though economic conditions and external challenges persist, the non-life insurance business in 2025 is still trending towards stable growth, especially within health insurance and the transition to international financial reporting standards.

📘 Read the full version in E-book Insurance Journal Issue 159
👉 Click here